§01 · Reference regression fixture · computed live by the engines

12 MW electrolysis pilot — full decision file

Every number below is produced at page load by the same engine chain the workspace runs: production → storage → transport → integration → environment → finance → social. Nothing is typed in by hand, and each figure carries its unit and the equation that produced it.

§02

Harmonised inputs

Base year 2026, commissioned 2028, EUR, 8 % real discount rate.

InputValueUnitMeaning
TechnologyAEL—Alkaline electrolysis, register §3.4 cost curve
Capacity Q12MWElectrical input rating of the electrolyser
Utilisation90%Share of the 8 760 h year at rated load
Electricity price50€/MWhContracted PPA, real 2024 money
Grid carbon intensity25gCO₂e/kWhAttributional factor for the PPA blend
Water price2.50€/m³Treated demineralised feed
Storage45 % CGH₂ 350 bar (24 h) + 15 % LH₂ (72 h)% of outputShare of production routed through each store
Transport60 % truck 220 km + 40 % pipeline 40 km% of outputDelivery legs, shares sum to 100 %
Sale price8.50€/kgGate price of hydrogen
Subsidy0.50€/kgProduction-linked support
Tax rate25%Corporate income tax on profit after depreciation
Lifetime25yrEconomic life used for NPV and depreciation

§03

Production

LCOH = (a × CAPEX + fixed OPEX + present value of stack replacements) ÷ annual kg, plus SEC × electricity price, plus water cost.

Annual output

1590.2 t H₂/yr

Mass leaving the electrolyser

Operating hours

7884 h/yr

8 760 × utilisation

Effective SEC

59.5 kWh/kg

Lifetime-average, degradation included

Installed CAPEX

€1026 €/kW

Register §3.4 power law at Q = 12 MW

Production LCOH

€4.07 €/kg

Levelised cost at the plant fence

Electricity share

€2.97 €/kg

SEC × price — usually the dominant term

Electricity — 2.97 €/kg (73%) Capital (annuitised) — 0.73 €/kg (18%) Fixed O&M — 0.20 €/kg (5%) Stack replacement — 0.15 €/kg (4%) Water — 0.03 €/kg (1%)
Figure 1 — where one euro of production cost goes (€/kg). Capital is annuitised at 8 % over 25 years; it is charged only once, here.

§04

Investment — the money view

Capital is spent once, in year 0. Profit is delivered kilograms × price, minus cash operating cost and tax.

The identity used — and the mistake it avoids

Investment (€) = CAPEXproduction + CAPEXstorage + CAPEXtransport assets, escalated from the base year to commissioning at 2.0 %/yr.

Profit (€/yr) = delivered kg/yr × (price + subsidy) − cash OPEX (electricity, water, fixed O&M, storage compression/liquefaction energy, transport service) − tax on profit after straight-line depreciation.

Payback (yr) is where cumulative cash turns positive. It is never computed as CAPEX ÷ (price − LCOH): the levelised cost already contains an annuitised slice of that same CAPEX, so that formula charges the plant twice and produces impossible answers such as 49 years on a 25-year asset. Lifetime investment adds every operating year plus each stack replacement.

Initial investment

€50.48 M total CAPEX

Total CAPEX at commissioning

Cash OPEX

€5.33 M per year

Everything paid in cash each year

Revenue

€14.14 M per year

Delivered kg × (price + subsidy)

EBITDA

€8.81 M per year

Revenue − cash OPEX

Payback

7.1 yr

Cumulative cash crosses zero

Discounted payback

11.6 yr

Same, at 8 % discounting

NPV

€22.51 M @ 8 %

Present value of all cash flows

IRR

13.0 %

Discount rate at which NPV = 0

Lifetime investment

€192.43 M over 25 yr

CAPEX + replacements + all cash OPEX

Lifetime revenue

€353.56 M over 25 yr

All sales including subsidy

Lifetime net profit

€118.67 M over 25 yr

Revenue − lifetime investment − tax

Break-even price

€6.71 €/kg

Price at which NPV = 0

0.00 8.30M 16.60M 24.90M 33.21M 14.53M € Production 2.74M € Storage 33.21M € Transport
Figure 2 — CAPEX by block (€, commissioning-year money). This is the money raised before the first kilogram is sold.
-50.48M 34.10M 118.67M project year
Figure 3 — cumulative net cash-flow (€). Year 0 is the CAPEX outflow; the curve crosses zero at 7.1 yr.
YearRevenue (€)Cash OPEX (€)Replacement CAPEX (€)Tax (€)Net cash (€)Cumulative (€)
0€0€0—€0€-50.48 M€-50.48 M
1€14.14 M€5.33 M—€1.70 M€7.11 M€-43.37 M
2€14.14 M€5.33 M—€1.70 M€7.11 M€-36.25 M
3€14.14 M€5.33 M—€1.70 M€7.11 M€-29.14 M
10€14.14 M€5.33 M€4.36 M€1.70 M€2.76 M€16.31 M
20€14.14 M€5.33 M€4.36 M€1.70 M€2.76 M€83.10 M
25€14.14 M€5.33 M—€1.70 M€7.11 M€118.67 M

Cash-flow ledger (first years, every stack-replacement year, and the final year).

§05

Storage

LCOS = (a × CAPEX + OPEX) ÷ kg through the store + compression or liquefaction energy. Capacity is sized from the flow and the holding time.

Mass through storage

954.1 t/yr

Production × stored fraction

Installed capacity

3921 kg H₂

(flow ÷ 8 760) × holding hours

Portfolio LCOS

€0.45 €/kg stored

Weighted across the two stores

Energy penalty

0.146 €/kg

Compression 0.66 × ln(P₂/P₁), liquefaction 6.78 kWh/kg

Boil-off

2147 kg/yr

LH₂ only, 0.3 %/day over the hold

Handling loss

5963 kg/yr

Venting and residual heel

StoreShare (%)Hold (h)CAPEX (€/kg cap.)Energy (kWh/kg)Boil-off (%/day)
CGH₂ 350 bar4524€3261.620.00
Liquid H₂1572€9006.780.30

Storage portfolio. Tank price follows p(P) = 0.346 × P + 286 €/kg (register §4.3).

§06

Transport & distribution

LCOT is the share-weighted tariff over the legs; the fleet or pipeline behind it is sized and priced as real capital.

Delivered volume

1571.4 t/yr

Production minus storage and transit losses

Daily delivery

4305 kg/day

Annual delivery ÷ 365

LCOT

€0.32 €/kg delivered

Weighted across all legs

Transport CAPEX

€33.21 M assets

Trailers, tractors and pipeline

Transit loss

10,750 kg/yr

Leakage and residual heel per km

Total chain loss

1.19 %

Storage + transport, of production

LegModeShare (%)Distance (km)Mass (t/yr)Tariff (€/kg)
Leg 1Truck · CGH₂60220954.1€0.40
Leg 2Pipeline4040636.1€0.20
Production — 4.12 €/kg (87%) Storage — 0.27 €/kg (6%) Transport — 0.32 €/kg (7%) Loss penalty — 0.05 €/kg (1%)
Figure 4 — composition of one delivered kilogram (€/kg). The loss penalty is production cost carried by mass that never reaches the customer.

§07

Environmental impacts — 16 indicators

Register §7. Curves are driven by the hydrogen-output capacity Q_H2,LHV, not the electrical rating.

Carbon intensity

1.76 kgCO₂e/kg H₂

Cradle-to-gate, delivered

RFNBO threshold

3.38 kgCO₂e/kg H₂

EU limit for renewable hydrogen

Headroom

1.62 kgCO₂e/kg H₂

Threshold minus actual — positive is compliant

Water intensity

10.0 L/kg H₂

Demineralised feed at the stack

Land footprint

0.0075 m²/(kg·yr)

Site area ÷ annual output

H₂ output capacity

6.72 MW (LHV)

Basis of every §7 curve

0.00 0.84 1.69 2.54 3.38 1.49 Electricity 0.07 Storage 0.20 Transport 0.00 Water 1.76 Total 3.38 Threshold
Figure 5 — carbon intensity build-up (kgCO₂e per kg H₂) against the 3.38 EU RFNBO threshold.
IDIndicatorValueUnitEquation / basisStatus
E01GHG emissions / GWP1002233.800t CO₂-eq/yM·SEC·CI electricity-driven screening (§7 E1)calculated
E02Water consumption183,265m³/yLifecycle PV–PEM boundary 2.726e4·Q (§7 E2)proxy
E03Transport GHG emissions318,050kg CO₂-eq/yM_transported·(d/100)·EF (§7 E3)calculated
E04Storage GHG emissions115,734kg CO₂-eq/yM_cycled·e_storage·CF_elec (§7 E4)calculated
E05Acidification8125.670kg SO₂-eq/y1.028e4·Q (§7 E5) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)calculated
E06Particulate-matter formation3051.078kg PM₂.₅-eq/y3.860e3·Q (§7 E6) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)calculated
E07Photochemical ozone formation3591.736kg NOx-eq/y4.544e3·Q, NOx-eq method (§7 E7) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)calculated
E08Embodied CO₂ (stack + BoP)60.075t CO₂-eq/y8.936·Q reference portfolio allocation (§7 E8)scenario
E09Metal and mineral depletion25,397kg Cu-eq/y3.213e4·Q (§7 E9) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)calculated
E10aHuman toxicity0.109CTUh/y0.1376·Q (§7 E10) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)proxy
E10bEcotoxicity1.65 × 10⁶CTUe/y2.089e6·Q (§7 E10) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)proxy
E11aFreshwater eutrophication675.980kg P-eq/y855.2·Q (§7 E11) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)calculated
E11bMarine eutrophication54.674kg N-eq/y69.17·Q (§7 E11) · transferred k1=1.08, k2=0.11 (§9.4)calculated
E12Waste and end-of-life burden25,920kg/projectm_stack(n_rep+1)(1−r_recycle) (§7 E12)calculated
E13Land / terrain footprint88.338ha13.14·Q, AWE + attributed PV generation (§7 E13)scenario
E14Biodiversity loss0.000PDF·yr/y1.812e-9·Q (§7 E14)proxy
E15Plant-boundary noise level56.807dB(A)90.6 + 7.5·log10 Q − 20·log10 r (§7 E15)calculated
E16aNoise-impacted area > 55 dB(A)0.048km²1.141e-2·Q^0.75 (§7 E16)calculated
E16bPersons highly annoyed0.285persons0.1107(Q−3.861)^0.8982 (§7 E16)calculated
E16cNoise-related DALYs0.006DALY/y0.002214(Q−3.861)^0.8982 (§7 E16)calculated

§08

Social impacts — 10 indicators

Register §8. Employment, exposure hours, local value added and consultation status.

Construction employment

192 FTE-years

Across the build period

Operational employment

4.2 FTE

Steady-state site staff

Local content

40 %

Share of spend with regional suppliers

Community index

68 score 0–100

Composite screening score

IDIndicatorValueUnitEquation / basisStatus
S01aEmployment — direct455.760job-years/project37.98·Q (§8 S1)calculated
S01bEmployment — net859.622job-years/project71.6352·Q (§8 S1)calculated
S02aWork exposure — on-site risk hours11,504medium-risk h/project958.694·Q (§8 S2)calculated
S02bWork exposure — off-site risk hours277,013medium-risk h/project23 084.4·Q (§8 S2)calculated
S02cExpected fatalities0.003fatalities/projectr_h·H/10⁶ — needs a local sector fatality rate (§8 S2)calculated
S03Community investment0.062M€/projects_community·C(Q) — contract or policy coefficient required (§8 S3)calculated
S04Energy security and access18,024persons-equivalent1502·Q energy-service proxy (§8 S4)proxy
S05Education, skills and training34.380thousand training h/project2.865·Q (§8 S5)proxy
S06Fair remuneration / labour compensation15.664GBP million/project1.30537·Q, regional IO boundary (§8 S6)proxy
S07aLand use exposure1.577km²0.1314·Q (§8 S7)calculated
S07bLand compensation11.66 × 10⁶€/projectA_land·c_ha — needs local land price (§8 S7) · k_L=0.95 vs WE (§9.1)calculated
S08aNoise annoyance — area > 55 dB(A)0.074km²Shared physical chain with E15–E16 (§8 S8)calculated
S08bNoise annoyance — persons highly annoyed0.728persons0.1107(Q−3.861)^0.8982 (§8 S8)calculated
S09Social and public acceptance—%No capacity equation authorised. Benchmarks: nearby-hub support 55.23% (n=1682), positive general view 77.4% (§8 S9)benchmark only
S10GDP contribution (GVA)38.462GBP million/project3.38·Q, regional IO boundary (§8 S10) · k_L=0.95 vs WE (§9.1)proxy

Open social risks

  • Public consultation not yet completed

§09

Sensitivity and honest reading

Electricity price 0.45Specific energy 0.24Capacity factor 0.08CAPEX (€/kW) 0.00
Figure 6 — swing in production LCOH (€/kg) when each driver moves across its plausible range, around the P50.

Delivered LCOH

€5.14/kg

Calculated

Sale price

€8.50/kg

Scenario

Preliminary gate

marginal

Calculated

Final gate

favourable

Calculated

At €5.14/kg delivered against a €8.50/kg gate price, this pilot clears the investment test with an NPV of €22.51 M and a payback of 7.1 years. H₂VALIS never rejects a project — it shows which assumption carries the answer, and the tornado above says electricity price and utilisation move it far more than CAPEX does.

§10

Units used on this page

SymbolUnitReads as
QMWElectrical input capacity of the electrolyser
Q_H2,LHVMWHydrogen output as lower-heating-value power
SECkWh/kgElectricity consumed per kilogram of hydrogen
LCOH€/kgLevelised cost of hydrogen at the plant fence
LCOS€/kg storedLevelised cost of storage, per kilogram through the store
LCOT€/kg deliveredLevelised cost of transport, per kilogram delivered
CAPEX€One-off capital spend, commissioning-year money
OPEX€/yrRecurring cash cost
EBITDA€/yrRevenue minus cash OPEX, before tax and capital
NPV€Present value of all cash flows at the discount rate
IRR%Discount rate at which NPV equals zero
GWP100kgCO₂e/kg H₂Global warming potential over 100 years
FTEjob-yearsOne person employed full time for one year
ttonne1 000 kg